YBSA Monthly Report November, 2012
YBSA Monthly Report
November, 2012
Integrated Plan: The Integrated Plan is a comprehensive program that includes seven elements and sustainable water resources for instream (salmon and steelhead) and out-of-stream (irrigation and municipal/domestic) water needs. The seven elements consist of a surface water storage element and six complementary elements.
Not Enough Water for Yakima Basin: The surface water storage elements may provide some additional water in the future but may not secure enough water in theYakimaBasin for the next 100 years.
Natural Resources Conservation Service Report: The following report was published by the Natural Resources Conservation Service Washington Snow Survey Program:
WashingtonFall Weather Roundup and Winter Outlook for Water-Year 2013
After a never ending spring, summer finally arrived with a vengeance. What was dreary and drizzly turned seemingly instantly into hot and dry. Record dryness was achieved at a number of locations around the state this summer which led to an exhausting fire season for those folks charged with protecting out natural resources. Reportedly “the fires won’t go out until it rains or snows” is the current mantra. Grouse CampSNOTELsite located in the NanumCreekBasinnear Ellensburg was caught in the TableMountainfire on September 19th. See link for pictures:
ftp://ftp-fc.sc.egov.usda.gov/WA/Home/Snow/GROUSE%20CAMP%20SNOTEL.pdf
Even with rainfall totaling no more than 25% of normal during August & September (less in some locations) we still ended water-year 2012 at 108% of average statewide.
For the last two years we have been locked into the La Nina cycle which generally means cooler and wetter, both of which pretty much played out with above average mountain snowpack. But this year La Nina has collapsed and the tropical Pacific has warmed, leaning toward a more Enso neutral winter with tendencies toward an El Nino.
El Nino years tend to produce Northwest winters that are warmer than normal, drier than normal, with less than normal mountain snowpack and a lower probability of lowland snow. They tend to be less stormy here, with more of the action going intoCalifornia.
The latest Climate Prediction Center guidance shows both early and late winter predictions to be 30-40% dryer than normal however temperature forecasts could go either way which will be the deciding factor on mountain snowpack levels.